The Ottawa Real Estate Market: A Fresh Outlook post-March Break

With the fuzzy sheen of spring just around the corner, the Ottawa real estate market is looking set to undergo a rejuvenation in listings. I stand firm on the belief that this year’s March break is the pivotal point in a shift towards more balanced market conditions, something that’s been long overdue.

Throughout January and February, the market was a rather slower, with constraints on listings and prices continuously reaching steady heights. The Greater Ottawa market saw the benchmark home price up by 2.8% from February 2023, according to the Ottawa Real Estate Board. We have also seen an increase of 15.2% in the number of listings compared to February 2023. The warmer weather has had Sellers list their markets sooner than the typical Spring Market, which is after March break.

It’s not all doom and gloom, of course. March has brought with it unseasonably warm weather, and it seems to have ushered in a precursor to the Spring market that is typically witnessed in April during more typical years. The early days of March have seen an uptick in the number of new listings, indicating that sellers are beginning to realize that now is the time to list. Do not wait.

The warmer days are not the only thing creating heat in Ottawa. The Bank of Canada on March 6th, 2024, decided to keep the key interest rates unchanged at 5%, further signaling borrowing costs could remain stable for the foreseeable future. This movement towards an earlier spring market, coupled with the consistent interest rates, could pave the way for a more robust market as we enter Q2.

However, it’s essential to approach this emerging trend with caution. Equifax reported in Q4 of 2023 that indicates a 135% increase in mortgage defaults in Ontario, compared to the same time last year. As we anticipate an influx of listings, we must also acknowledge that many of these properties might be over-leveraged. This encourages us to approach the market not with the frenzied zeal of previous years but with a balanced, pragmatic mindset. Buyers will have more choice come Spring.

To sellers, my message is clear: the window of pandemic-inflated prices is closed, and the key to selling successfully in this new landscape is pricing your home in line with the current market conditions. Those who still harbor the belief that 2022’s rapid appreciation will extend indefinitely are likely to be met with disappointing results. But for those who can read the signs and adapt, there’s still a promise of profitable transactions.

Buyers, on the other hand, have a reason to feel cautiously optimistic. The increased inventory in the market will provide more options, and the stabilization of interest rates could mean a more predictable cost of borrowing. Although it’s unlikely that we will see prices drop significantly, a wider selection of properties could mean a more reasonable negotiating ground going forward.

In a broader perspective, I remain bullish on the longevity of Ottawa’s real estate market. The city’s status as a government town with stable employment, coupled with a growing tech sector and a post-pandemic renovation of lifestyle priorities, speaks to a strong local demand. The potential is here, now it’s time for the market to adjust and for buyers and sellers alike to act wisely in this period of transition.

This is not a market for the faint of heart but for those of us who appreciate the intricate dance between factors, there’s an opportunity to be had in Ottawa’s real estate market. The time is now to adjust expectations, stay informed, and participate in a market that may not be familiar, but still holds the potential for success. Contact Marc-Andre Perrier Ottawa Real Estate Agent with Century 21 to guide you through this upcoming Spring market.